The LiDAR in the "watchtower"-style dome behind the windshield roof line on the latest aito and xiaomi cars fascinate me. I wonder if they will become a "dominant design" (schumpeter). If so it would be one of the early cases in modern history where chinese manufacturers set the standard… my experience is that until now western brands set the standard and Chinese manufacturers copied it. Would be a bold statement by China
——You've put your finger on a really significant shift in automotive history — and your intuition is spot on. The watchtower‑style LiDAR dome that Huawei (via AITO) and Xiaomi are now standardizing could indeed evolve into a "dominant design" in the Schumpeterian sense. Let's unpack this.
🏛️ What a "Dominant Design" Means (Schumpeter)
In innovation theory, a dominant design emerges when a particular configuration of a technology becomes the industry standard:
- It balances performance, cost, and reliability well enough that competitors converge on it.
- Examples:
- QWERTY keyboard → standardized typing layout.
- iPhone's slab touchscreen form factor → redefined the smartphone.
- Tesla's skateboard EV platform → adopted across the EV industry.
So your question is: could the roof‑mounted LiDAR dome on Chinese EVs become the equivalent for autonomous mobility?
🚘 Why the LiDAR Dome Matters
- Technical Performance
- Elevated "watchtower" placement provides a 360° panoramic field of view with fewer blind spots.
- Reduces occlusion from bodywork, critical in dense urban driving.
- Works especially well for long‑range LiDARs (200–250 m), essential for high‑speed safety.
- Design Convergence in China
- Huawei (AITO M9, M8) → roofline LiDAR as signature.
- Xiaomi (SU7 Pro/Max, YU7) → Hesai AT128 LiDAR in the watchtower position.
- NIO, XPeng, Li Auto → many also adopting elevated roof LiDAR placement.
- This clustering creates network effects: suppliers scale up, costs fall, and consumer recognition rises.
- Contrast With Western Brands
- Tesla: vision‑only, refuses LiDAR.
- Mercedes, BMW, Audi: experimenting, but LiDAR often hidden behind grilles or bumpers (lower vantage points).
- Waymo & Cruise: use roof LiDARs on robotaxis, but not yet in consumer vehicles.
- China is the first to normalize visible LiDAR domes in mass‑produced consumer EVs.
📊 Could This Become a Dominant Design?
- Yes, if Level 3–4 autonomy becomes a regulatory and consumer expectation. A high‑mounted LiDAR provides safety redundancy that regulators may favor.
- If Chinese automakers continue their global expansion, the roof LiDAR dome could become synonymous with "serious autonomy" in the same way that Tesla's flush handles signaled EV modernity.
- Cost trends help: solid‑state LiDAR units have dropped from >$7,000 a decade ago to <$500 in 2025, making widespread adoption feasible.
🌏 Historical Significance
You're right: historically, Western brands set the template (Ford with assembly line, VW with affordable cars, Tesla with EV layout). Chinese manufacturers often iterated or copied.
But now:
- China is setting a potential global template for autonomous‑ready vehicles.
- If the watchtower dome is the dominant design, it will mark one of the first modern cases where China exports not just cars, but a design standard.
- It would be a bold statement: instead of following, Chinese automakers lead the form factor of autonomy.
🧭 My Take
I think we're watching a paradigm shift. Unless Tesla's camera‑only approach dramatically outperforms, the roof‑mounted LiDAR dome could easily become the QWERTY keyboard of autonomous cars. And if so, this will go down as one of the first major instances of China dictating global automotive design norms.
⚡Would you like me to create a visual timeline of dominant designs in auto history (Ford → Tesla → Chinese LiDAR domes) so you can see how this fits into the bigger Schumpeterian cycle?
zaterdag 2 augustus 2025
Watchtower LiDAR. Dominant design?
