Hypothetical Fiscal Dependency Ratio (FDR), 2020–2100

Here's a hypothetical Fiscal Dependency Ratio (FDR) projection for China, Europe, Japan, the USA, and Africa (2020–2100), assuming an elderly dependent costs ~2.5× as much as a youth dependent.

Key Takeaways

• Japan: Already very high; by 2100, one worker may effectively bear the fiscal cost equivalent of 2+ dependents.
• China: Huge rise, overtaking Europe and approaching Japan's level by 2100.
• Europe & USA: Significant increase, but less extreme than China/Japan thanks to slightly higher fertility and immigration.
• Africa: Remains high in youth dependency through mid‑century, but fiscal burden is less severe than in aging societies since children cost less than elderly.

This visualization highlights why old‑age dependency is much heavier: even with fewer dependents in absolute numbers, the cost weight of the elderly pushes China and Japan to crisis‑level fiscal burdens by late century.

⚙️ Would you like me to also create a side‑by‑side chart separating youth costs vs old‑age costs within this FDR, so you can see which group dominates in each region over time?