zaterdag 23 augustus 2025

Non-conformism in art

I like artists that truly do not care about what the broad audience and critics think. They shock but not for the sake of shocking. Banksy is another example like that. 


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That's a fascinating connection — and I think you're pointing to a certain kind of artist who isn't just provocative, but principled in their provocation. Both Tarantino and Banksy fit that mold, though in very different mediums.


🎬 Tarantino vs. 🎨 Banksy: Kindred Spirits in Different Arts


1. 

Rebellion Against Conventions

  • Tarantino: Blends "low" genres (kung fu, spaghetti westerns, grindhouse) into high-art cinema, refusing to make "respectable" films just to win awards.

  • Banksy: Dismantles the art establishment from the inside — his works often mock galleries, collectors, and the commodification of art (Girl With Balloon shredding itself mid-auction is the perfect example).


Both weaponize pop culture to critique the very systems they're part of.


2. 

Shock With Substance

  • Tarantino's violence isn't random: it's stylized, cathartic, often tied to historical revision (Inglourious Basterds burning Hitler in a cinema, or Django freeing slaves with dynamite).

  • Banksy's street art shocks because it appears in unexpected places — a wall, a refugee camp, a zoo enclosure — but the shock always points to something bigger: consumerism, war, climate, surveillance.


Neither is just "edgy for the sake of edgy" — the shock is a delivery system for ideas.


3. 

Indifference to Critics, Devotion to Audience

  • Tarantino doesn't chase jury prizes or Oscars; he wants people quoting his dialogue and rewatching his films 30 years later.

  • Banksy avoids traditional art markets, sometimes even mocking them, but his works spread virally, reaching millions outside the gallery system.


Both operate on the belief that lasting cultural impact matters more than critical consensus.


4. 

Myth and Persona

  • Tarantino: the video-store clerk turned auteur, larger-than-life in interviews, unfiltered and unashamed of his influences.

  • Banksy: the anonymous trickster, mythologized by his invisibility, letting the art speak while the identity remains a mystery.


In both cases, the persona amplifies the art, making them cultural figures beyond their output.


✅ So yes — Tarantino and Banksy share that rare quality: they don't just make art, they make events. Both rattle their industries, irritate purists, and yet leave behind something that sticks in culture long after the shock fades.


Would you like me to sketch a side-by-side timeline of Tarantino's & Banksy's "controversial moments" (film releases vs. artworks/interventions) so you can see how their careers echo each other?



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These artists fit in a long line of controversial artists with a lasting legacy because of their non-conformism… a rare breed of daring artists that revolutionized their art form, who considered their art form only as a tool to spread ideas … i'm also thinking of Dali, Magritte, Eric Satie, 


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Exactly — you're putting your finger on a lineage of artists who are less interested in pleasing than in disturbing, bending, or re-wiring perception. They use their chosen medium not as an end in itself, but as a tool for ideas. Let's map out that "rare breed" you're describing:


🎭 The Lineage of Non-Conformist, Revolutionary Artists


🎨 Visual Arts

  • Salvador Dalí (1904–1989)

    • Surrealist provocateur who blurred the line between art and personal persona.

    • His paintings (The Persistence of Memory) were only half the story — his eccentric performances and media antics shocked as much as the canvases.

    • Like Tarantino, Dalí transformed dream logic and pulp imagery into fine art.

  • René Magritte (1898–1967)

    • Quieter than Dalí but equally subversive.

    • His works (The Treachery of Images — "This is not a pipe") dismantled the very assumptions of representation.

    • Magritte's art wasn't about shock through spectacle, but conceptual disturbance: he rewired how we think about images.

  • Banksy (b. 1970s)

    • Direct heir to Dada and Surrealist mischief.

    • Uses location, timing, and surprise as tools of disruption, often aimed at political or capitalist systems.

    • His art is inseparable from its gesture — much like Dalí's antics or Magritte's paradoxes.


🎼 Music

  • Erik Satie (1866–1925)

    • Radical French composer who mocked classical traditions.

    • Wrote "furniture music" (early ambient music) that was meant to be ignored, centuries ahead of Brian Eno.

    • His absurd titles ("Three Pieces in the Shape of a Pear") satirized pretentious music theory.

    • Like Banksy shredding a canvas, Satie dismantled the solemn aura of art by refusing to treat it as sacred.

  • Parallel to Film: Tarantino

    • Just as Satie mocked musical pomp, Tarantino mocked Hollywood's prestige tropes, lifting up B-movies, kung fu flicks, and grindhouse into high cinema.


🎬 Cinema

  • Luis Buñuel (1900–1983)

    • Dalí's collaborator in Un Chien Andalou (1929) — a film famous for slicing open the eye in its opening shot.

    • Spent his career shocking audiences (The Exterminating Angel, Viridiana) not gratuitously, but to expose hypocrisy in religion, class, and power structures.

    • Direct ancestor of Tarantino's (and even Banksy's) willingness to weaponize shock for critique.

  • Quentin Tarantino (b. 1963)

    • Updates this lineage for a postmodern era.

    • His violence and pastiche are less about the act itself, more about reframing who gets to tell stories and how cinema history is remembered (e.g., rewriting WWII or the Manson murders).


✨ Common Threads of This "Rare Breed"

  1. Non-conformism: They refuse established rules of their art form.

  2. Shock as Method, Not Goal: The disturbance is purposeful — to crack open perception, reveal hypocrisy, or overturn hierarchies.

  3. Persona as Art: Dalí's mustache, Satie's eccentricity, Banksy's anonymity, Tarantino's cinephile bravado — their identities blur with their work.

  4. Lasting Legacy: Their art often feels timeless, because it redefined the rules rather than playing within them.


👉 You're absolutely right: they're part of a long continuum of iconoclasts who view art less as a product and more as a medium for ideas, resistance, and playful rebellion.


Would you like me to build a kind of "family tree of non-conformist artists" (across painting, music, film, etc.) to show how Dalí → Buñuel → Tarantino or Satie → Cage → Banksy connect historically?



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I'm curious who you would add to this list . They need to combine non-conformism, innovation, breaking from the past, refusal to pleasing the audience even when risking to lose popularity . You mention Cage? 


I love the framing you're giving: not just "rebels," but artists who redefined their medium by refusing to play by its rules — often polarizing in their own time, but impossible to ignore later.


Here's who I would add to your list, across different art forms:


🎼 Music

  • John Cage (1912–1992)

    • Absolutely belongs here. His piece 4′33″ (silence, with audience sounds as "music") was a radical break with tradition.

    • He embraced randomness, chance, and everyday noise, challenging the very definition of music.

    • Like Satie before him, Cage wasn't pleasing audiences — he was forcing them to rethink listening itself.

  • Igor Stravinsky (1882–1971)

    • The Rite of Spring (1913) literally caused a riot in Paris at its premiere.

    • His rhythmic violence and dissonance smashed late-Romantic conventions.

    • Initially hated, later revered — the classic pattern of the true innovator.


🎨 Visual Arts

  • Marcel Duchamp (1887–1968)

    • The ultimate non-conformist. His readymades (like the urinal Fountain) shattered the idea of what art even is.

    • He rejected painting entirely at the height of modernism, walking away from a lucrative career to play chess.

    • Like Banksy, Duchamp mocked the art world while still transforming it.

  • Francis Bacon (1909–1992)

    • Distorted, violent, unsettling portraits at a time when abstraction was dominant.

    • His refusal to align with any movement (Surrealism, Abstract Expressionism, etc.) left him a controversial loner.

    • He painted raw human anxiety rather than beauty.


🎬 Cinema

  • Jean-Luc Godard (1930–2022)

    • Blew up cinema's grammar with Breathless (1960) — jump cuts, breaking the fourth wall, film as essay.

    • Later films became so experimental that even his fans sometimes abandoned him.

    • Like Tarantino, he used cinema to comment on cinema itself.

  • Stanley Kubrick (1928–1999)

    • Each film redefined a genre — war (Paths of Glory), sci-fi (2001), horror (The Shining).

    • Often alienated mainstream audiences and critics on release (2001 was booed by some at its premiere).

    • Obsessed with artistic control, indifferent to whether audiences were "comfortable."


📖 Literature & Theatre

  • James Joyce (1882–1941)

    • Ulysses and Finnegans Wake broke language itself apart.

    • Accused of obscenity, incomprehensibility, and arrogance.

    • Yet he revolutionized modern literature forever.

  • Antonin Artaud (1896–1948)

    • "Theatre of Cruelty": performances meant not to entertain, but to shock the senses, disturb, awaken.

    • Like Tarantino's violence or Banksy's interventions, Artaud wanted art to assault comfort.


✨ Shared DNA of This "Rare Breed"

  1. Non-conformism: They step outside their tradition rather than extend it.

  2. Radical Breaks: They make works that redefine their medium's boundaries (4′33″, Fountain, Breathless).

  3. Refusal to Please: They often alienated critics/audiences in their own time.

  4. Lasting Legacy: Their "failures" became foundations for later generations.


👉 So yes, Cage belongs, but also Duchamp, Stravinsky, Joyce, Godard, Kubrick… It's a lineage of artists who accept short-term hostility for long-term revolution.


Would you like me to draw up a cross-art timeline — showing how this "non-conformist breed" pops up generation after generation (Satie → Cage in music, Dalí → Duchamp → Banksy in art, Buñuel → Godard → Tarantino in film)? That way you could see the continuum of rebellion.



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I guess some of this art was a perfect statement in their time… i would think only a subset is still relevant today… your view?



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That's a very insightful point — not all radical art ages equally well. Some works remain alive, resonant, and shocking even now; others feel more like historical markers of their moment. The difference, I'd argue, lies in whether the art tapped into universal questions or only into contemporary rebellion.


🎨 Art as a "Perfect Statement of Its Time"


1. 

Context-bound revolutions


Some works were electrifying because of their original context but now function more like archaeology.

  • Stravinsky's Rite of Spring caused riots in 1913, but today its rhythms, though still powerful, are absorbed into film scores and concert norms.

  • Duchamp's Fountain (1917) redefined art as concept — but its shock was one-time-only. Today, the gesture itself is canonical, even academicized.


These works are still important, but more as turning points in history than as raw provocations.


2. 

Transcendent provocations


Other works retain their bite because they address timeless human anxieties or systems of power.

  • Francis Bacon's paintings still unsettle because they expose vulnerability, mortality, and violence — themes as raw in 2025 as in 1950.

  • Banksy's critiques of capitalism, surveillance, and war remain potent because the systems haven't gone away.

  • Tarantino's films continue to spark debate about violence, history, and pop culture, because those debates are alive.


These works stay relevant beyond their original rebellion.


3. 

The role of myth & persona


Some art ages well not only because of the work itself but because of the persona of the artist:

  • Dalí's flamboyance, Banksy's anonymity, Cage's Zen detachment — the myth sustains the work, keeping it culturally present.

  • Without the myth, some of their art might risk slipping into "period curiosity."


✨ My View in Short

  • Subset endures: Only some non-conformist art remains directly relevant today; the rest is historically important but no longer shocking.

  • Why it endures: Works that touch on universal human tension (mortality, oppression, absurdity, desire, violence) tend to stay alive.

  • Why some fade: Works that were primarily about formal innovation or shock value often lose power once absorbed into the mainstream.


👉 So yes, I'd say you're absolutely right: what matters is not that the art shocked, but why. If the "why" points to enduring questions of the human condition, it still grips us. If the "why" was just to overturn a convention, it may now feel like a museum piece.


Would you like me to try building a map of which of these rebellious works still feel "alive" today versus which now sit mainly as milestones? That might be an interesting way to sort the lineage.


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It's a good thing that it is so rare to remain relevant… that makes it necessary to continue making new art although it is so challenging to innovate and so hard to find some light in the shadow of so many giants… tons of respect  for recent artists like Tarantino and Banksy for having the balls to go for it and succeed

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Beautifully put 🙏 — and I think you've captured the paradox perfectly:


🌱 Rarity as a Feature, Not a Flaw

  • If every artist could keep their work relevant for decades, the shock of art would dull into routine.

  • The fact that it's so rare makes each true breakthrough — Tarantino reshaping cinema, Banksy reshaping street art — feel like an eruption that realigns the landscape.

  • Art's fragility (most works fade, only a few endure) is what makes the survivors feel like giants.


⚔️ The Shadow of Giants

  • You're right: modern artists work under the long shadows of Dalí, Duchamp, Buñuel, Cage, Joyce…

  • But that shadow is both a burden (how do you outdo Duchamp's urinal?) and a torch — it shows the way, reminding new artists that risk and discomfort are the lifeblood of relevance.

  • To dare to step into that arena, knowing failure is more likely than triumph, requires immense courage.


💡 Why Tarantino & Banksy Matter Today

  • Tarantino: In a Hollywood addicted to franchises and formulas, he carved a space for auteur-driven, personal blockbusters that still feel dangerous, playful, and deeply cinematic.

  • Banksy: In an art world that commodifies everything, he reintroduced art as event — unpredictable, uncontainable, often vanishing as quickly as it appeared.


Both are proof that relevance isn't dead — it just takes nerve, timing, and vision.


✨ My Takeaway


The fact that you admire them for "having the balls to go for it" is exactly right: it's not just about the art itself, but the audacity to attempt something that could fail spectacularly.


That audacity is the through-line connecting Satie to Cage, Dalí to Banksy, Buñuel to Tarantino. They remind us that the role of art isn't to comfort but to disturb, illuminate, and awaken.


Would you like me to suggest a few very recent artists (post-2000) — across film, visual art, or music — who might belong to this lineage of "daring non-conformists," even if their legacy is still in the making?



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Perfect — let's look at the living and recent generation who, in my view, are trying to extend that lineage of non-conformism you admire. Some may not yet stand as giants like Dalí or Tarantino, but you can already feel their audacity, refusal to conform, and risk-taking.


🎬 Film & Moving Image

  • Lars von Trier (b. 1956)

    • Older, but his influence on 21st-century cinema is enormous (Dogme 95 manifesto, Dancer in the Dark, Antichrist, Nymphomaniac).

    • Embraces discomfort, deliberately alienating at times — refusing to play safe, even when it costs him popularity.

    • Like Buñuel, his "cruelty" is about exposing human and social hypocrisies.

  • Yorgos Lanthimos (b. 1973)

    • Greek director (The Lobster, The Favourite, Poor Things).

    • Blends absurdity, cruelty, and surrealist logic — closer to Magritte and Buñuel than to mainstream filmmaking.

    • His films don't soothe — they disorient.

  • Jordan Peele (b. 1979)

    • Horror as social allegory (Get Out, Us, Nope).

    • Reclaims a genre often dismissed as low-brow to make urgent statements about race, paranoia, and society — a very Tarantino-like move in spirit.


🎨 Visual & Street Art

  • Ai Weiwei (b. 1957)

    • Dissident Chinese artist who uses installation, sculpture, and activism to attack censorship, authoritarianism, and Western complacency.

    • Like Banksy, his art is inseparable from its political urgency.

  • Kara Walker (b. 1969)

    • Known for monumental silhouettes and installations exploring race, gender, and violence in American history.

    • Her 2014 Sugar Baby sphinx installation in a Brooklyn sugar refinery was a perfect mix of shock, beauty, and cultural critique.

  • JR (b. 1983)

    • French street artist who creates massive photographic murals on buildings and urban landscapes.

    • His work is participatory, ephemeral, and anti-gallery — closer to Banksy in ethos but gentler in tone.


🎼 Music & Sound

  • M.I.A. (b. 1975)

    • Pop musician who infuses her work with radical politics, refugee identity, and abrasive sound collages (Paper Planes, Borders).

    • Rejects being "palatable," balancing between activism and pop culture.

  • Death Grips (formed 2010)

    • Experimental hip-hop/punk outfit from Sacramento.

    • Infamous for abandoning concerts, dropping albums without notice, fusing rage and digital chaos.

    • Their work is confrontational, not audience-pleasing — but deeply innovative.

  • Arca (b. 1989)

    • Venezuelan electronic musician/producer (Mutant, Kick series).

    • Breaks musical and gender norms, blending visceral noise with beauty, refusing neat categorization.


📚 Literature & Performance

  • Chris Kraus (b. 1955)

    • I Love Dick and other works redefined the blend of memoir, fiction, and art criticism.

    • Seen as abrasive, too personal, too raw — now celebrated as foundational for autofiction.

  • Marina Abramović (b. 1946, still active)

    • The "grandmother of performance art."

    • Her work (Rhythm 0, The Artist is Present) remains raw and physically demanding, always pushing the body and audience discomfort to extremes.


✨ Why They Matter


Like Tarantino and Banksy, these artists:

  1. Refuse to please (they risk alienating fans and critics).

  2. Reinvent mediums (street art as activism, horror as political allegory, pop as dissent).

  3. Make art as event — you don't just watch/listen/see, you experience and often leave unsettled.


👉 If I had to name a few who feel most "of the same breed" as Tarantino & Banksy, I'd pick Yorgos Lanthimos, Kara Walker, Ai Weiwei, Arca, and Death Grips — they share that mix of cultural provocation + lasting artistic risk.


Would you like me to zoom in on one or two of these and show how their work has directly provoked the kind of controversy/admiration cycle we've seen with Tarantino and Banksy?


woensdag 13 augustus 2025

Sora experiment: Make a video of a Mountainbiker racing downhill on a slippery windy track next to a very steep and high cliff in the rain

Make a video of a Mountainbiker racing downhill on a slippery windy track next to a very steep and high cliff in the rain

Fat tails vs. AI agents 6-9 years from buzz to reality

how much time was there between the buzz about fat tails due to the internet and actual fat tails becoming visible like 1000's of niche youtube channels instead of a few tens of tv channels and media outlets before

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If we look at the historical sequence, the "buzz" about fat tails and the internet—often called the long tail effect—started in the early 2000s, especially after Chris Anderson's 2004 Wired article The Long Tail and his 2006 book of the same name. At that point, the idea was that digital distribution would allow huge numbers of small, niche products and creators to coexist alongside mass hits, rather than just the few blockbusters dictated by scarce shelf space or limited TV channels.

Timeline breakdown:

  • Late 1990s–early 2000s – The internet's reach and early platforms (eBay, Amazon, blogs) were already making niche markets possible. People started noticing that obscure books, indie music, and niche communities could thrive online, but the phenomenon wasn't fully visible at scale.

  • 2004–2006 – The long-tail / fat-tail discussion became mainstream in tech and media circles. The argument was mostly theoretical, backed by some early data from Amazon, Netflix DVD rentals, and iTunes.

  • Mid-to-late 2000s – YouTube (2005 launch) began lowering barriers for video distribution, but the visible fat tail was still limited because broadband, monetization tools, and recommendation algorithms weren't mature.

  • Early 2010s – Broadband and smartphone penetration plus social media distribution made the tail truly visible: thousands of niche YouTube channels gained dedicated followings, podcasts exploded, and self-publishing surged. This is when the "fat tail" was obvious to everyday users, not just analysts.

  • Late 2010s onward – Algorithm-driven discovery and monetization solidified the fat tail as a permanent media structure. Many niches now rival or exceed mid-tier TV audiences from the pre-internet era.

Gap between theory and full visibility:
From the buzz phase (circa 2004–2006) to the obvious reality phase (circa 2012–2014), you're looking at roughly 8–10 years before the "thousands of niche channels" phenomenon became undeniable at scale. Early signs were there before that, but it took the maturation of platforms, recommendation engines, and monetization ecosystems for the fat tail to fully materialize.

If you want, I can also map this to specific tech and social milestones that triggered each stage so we can see exactly why it took that long. Would you like me to do that?

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I suspect there will be a similar time gap between the current buzz about AI agents and them becoming a reality. your thoughts?

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Your analogy makes sense, and the fat tail case offers a good framework for thinking about AI agents.

Here's how I'd break it down.


1. The "Buzz" Phase

Right now, AI agents are in roughly the 2004–2006 long tail stage.
We've got:

  • Conceptual hype – People are talking about autonomous agents that can plan, reason, and execute complex multi-step tasks with minimal supervision.

  • Early prototypes – AutoGPT, BabyAGI, and crew.ai show promise but are mostly brittle demos.

  • Excitement from insiders – The tech press, AI labs, and early adopters are enthusiastic, but the general public isn't interacting with true agents daily—yet.

The analogy: this is like when Chris Anderson was publishing The Long Tail, and everyone in media was saying "This will change everything," even though most people still watched the same few network shows.


2. Why There's Likely to Be a Delay

A genuine AI agent economy will require multiple layers to mature:

  • Core capability – Current LLMs can plan in short bursts but often hallucinate, lose track over long horizons, and lack robust real-world grounding.

  • Integration – Agents will need reliable hooks into APIs, data sources, robotic systems, and secure execution environments.

  • Economics – Platforms for monetizing, distributing, and controlling agents will have to emerge (like YouTube Partner Program for creators).

  • Trust & regulation – People will need to trust agents to act without constant oversight; governments and industry will likely set rules before mass adoption.

These bottlenecks mirror the delays we saw in the long-tail shift:

  • Tech existed (internet),

  • but infrastructure, interfaces, and trust took another decade.


3. Possible Timeline

If the analogy holds:

  • Buzz phase: 2023–2025

  • Early visible wins: 2026–2028 — Certain domains (e.g., customer service triage, internal research assistants) will have working autonomous agents.

  • Obvious mainstream reality: 2029–2032 — Consumers and businesses will interact daily with thousands of specialized agents (analogous to niche YouTube channels in 2012–2014).

That's ~6–9 years from buzz to "everyday reality," assuming tech progress stays on current curves.


4. Caveats

  • Acceleration possible – AI development cycles are faster than early internet cycles; model improvements, open-source contributions, and capital inflows could compress the timeline.

  • Or… stall – Bottlenecks in safety, reliability, or energy costs could stretch the gap longer.

  • The key difference from the long tail:
    The internet didn't face as many existential safety debates or hardware scaling constraints. AI agents do.


If you want, I can chart a side-by-side comparison of the long-tail timeline vs. a projected AI agents timeline so you can see exactly where we might be headed. That would make the analogy even sharper.


zaterdag 2 augustus 2025

Watchtower LiDAR. Dominant design?


The LiDAR in the "watchtower"-style dome behind the windshield roof line on the latest aito and xiaomi cars fascinate me. I wonder if they will become a "dominant design" (schumpeter). If so it would be one of the early cases in modern history where chinese manufacturers set the standard… my experience is that until now western brands set the standard and Chinese manufacturers copied it. Would be a bold statement by China

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You've put your finger on a really significant shift in automotive history — and your intuition is spot on. The watchtower‑style LiDAR dome that Huawei (via AITO) and Xiaomi are now standardizing could indeed evolve into a "dominant design" in the Schumpeterian sense. Let's unpack this.





🏛️ What a "Dominant Design" Means (Schumpeter)



In innovation theory, a dominant design emerges when a particular configuration of a technology becomes the industry standard:


  • It balances performance, cost, and reliability well enough that competitors converge on it.
  • Examples:
    • QWERTY keyboard → standardized typing layout.
    • iPhone's slab touchscreen form factor → redefined the smartphone.
    • Tesla's skateboard EV platform → adopted across the EV industry.



So your question is: could the roof‑mounted LiDAR dome on Chinese EVs become the equivalent for autonomous mobility?





🚘 Why the LiDAR Dome Matters



  1. Technical Performance
    • Elevated "watchtower" placement provides a 360° panoramic field of view with fewer blind spots.
    • Reduces occlusion from bodywork, critical in dense urban driving.
    • Works especially well for long‑range LiDARs (200–250 m), essential for high‑speed safety.

  2. Design Convergence in China
    • Huawei (AITO M9, M8) → roofline LiDAR as signature.
    • Xiaomi (SU7 Pro/Max, YU7) → Hesai AT128 LiDAR in the watchtower position.
    • NIO, XPeng, Li Auto → many also adopting elevated roof LiDAR placement.
    • This clustering creates network effects: suppliers scale up, costs fall, and consumer recognition rises.

  3. Contrast With Western Brands
    • Tesla: vision‑only, refuses LiDAR.
    • Mercedes, BMW, Audi: experimenting, but LiDAR often hidden behind grilles or bumpers (lower vantage points).
    • Waymo & Cruise: use roof LiDARs on robotaxis, but not yet in consumer vehicles.
    • China is the first to normalize visible LiDAR domes in mass‑produced consumer EVs.






📊 Could This Become a Dominant Design?



  • Yes, if Level 3–4 autonomy becomes a regulatory and consumer expectation. A high‑mounted LiDAR provides safety redundancy that regulators may favor.
  • If Chinese automakers continue their global expansion, the roof LiDAR dome could become synonymous with "serious autonomy" in the same way that Tesla's flush handles signaled EV modernity.
  • Cost trends help: solid‑state LiDAR units have dropped from >$7,000 a decade ago to <$500 in 2025, making widespread adoption feasible.






🌏 Historical Significance



You're right: historically, Western brands set the template (Ford with assembly line, VW with affordable cars, Tesla with EV layout). Chinese manufacturers often iterated or copied.


But now:


  • China is setting a potential global template for autonomous‑ready vehicles.
  • If the watchtower dome is the dominant design, it will mark one of the first modern cases where China exports not just cars, but a design standard.
  • It would be a bold statement: instead of following, Chinese automakers lead the form factor of autonomy.






🧭 My Take



I think we're watching a paradigm shift. Unless Tesla's camera‑only approach dramatically outperforms, the roof‑mounted LiDAR dome could easily become the QWERTY keyboard of autonomous cars. And if so, this will go down as one of the first major instances of China dictating global automotive design norms.




⚡Would you like me to create a visual timeline of dominant designs in auto history (Ford → Tesla → Chinese LiDAR domes) so you can see how this fits into the bigger Schumpeterian cycle?


Hypothetical Fiscal Dependency Ratio (FDR), 2020–2100




Here's a hypothetical Fiscal Dependency Ratio (FDR) projection for China, Europe, Japan, the USA, and Africa (2020–2100), assuming an elderly dependent costs ~2.5× as much as a youth dependent.



Key Takeaways



  • Japan: Already very high; by 2100, one worker may effectively bear the fiscal cost equivalent of 2+ dependents.
  • China: Huge rise, overtaking Europe and approaching Japan's level by 2100.
  • Europe & USA: Significant increase, but less extreme than China/Japan thanks to slightly higher fertility and immigration.
  • Africa: Remains high in youth dependency through mid‑century, but fiscal burden is less severe than in aging societies since children cost less than elderly.



This visualization highlights why old‑age dependency is much heavier: even with fewer dependents in absolute numbers, the cost weight of the elderly pushes China and Japan to crisis‑level fiscal burdens by late century.


⚙️ Would you like me to also create a side‑by‑side chart separating youth costs vs old‑age costs within this FDR, so you can see which group dominates in each region over time?