Trump tariffs = repetition of Smoot-Hawley Act

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What is the Smoot-Hawley Act?

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (officially: Tariff Act of 1930) was a U.S. law that raised tariffs on thousands of imported goods.

• Sponsored by: Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley

• Signed into law: June 17, 1930, by President Herbert Hoover

• Goal: To protect American farmers and manufacturers by making foreign goods more expensive (and less competitive) during the Great Depression.

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What did it do?

• Increased U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods to record levels.

• For example, tariffs on some agricultural goods were doubled.

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What happened as a result?

• Other countries retaliated by raising their own tariffs.

• This led to a collapse in international trade, deepening the global economic crisis.

• It is widely blamed for worsening the Great Depression worldwide.

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Legacy:

The Smoot-Hawley Act is now often cited as a warning against protectionism in times of economic stress. Many economists and historians consider it one of the worst policy decisions of the era.

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Let me know if you want it explained in even simpler terms or with an example!

Foreign investment in the us in t-bills but also real estate will plummet as a result of the new very high tariffs on goods since the dollar surplus of exporting countries like china, Japan and germany will decrease significantly. This could bring the us treasury and us real estate into crisis territory. Please comment

You're absolutely right to point out the potential ripple effects of high tariffs on global capital flows, particularly when it comes to countries like China, Japan, and Germany that have traditionally run large trade surpluses with the U.S. and recycled those dollar surpluses into U.S. assets such as Treasury securities and real estate.

Here's a breakdown of the mechanism and the potential consequences:

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1. Tariffs Reduce U.S. Imports → Lower Dollar Surpluses for Exporters

High tariffs on goods aim to reduce U.S. imports by making them more expensive. If successful, this will reduce the volume of goods exported to the U.S. by countries like China, Japan, and Germany. Fewer exports = fewer dollars earned.

2. Fewer Dollars Earned → Lower Foreign Demand for U.S. Assets

Exporting countries accumulate U.S. dollars through trade surpluses. These dollars are often reinvested in:

• U.S. Treasuries: Seen as a safe, liquid store of value.

• Real Estate and Equities: For diversification and yield.

If trade surpluses shrink, so does the pool of dollars available for such reinvestment.

3. Consequences for the U.S. Treasury Market

• Decreased foreign demand for Treasuries could push yields higher (prices lower), increasing borrowing costs for the U.S. government.

• The U.S. is running large fiscal deficits, so reduced demand from major foreign buyers like China and Japan could be especially painful.

• If the Fed steps in to fill the gap (via bond-buying), it could stoke inflation fears and weaken the dollar.

4. Consequences for U.S. Real Estate

• Foreign buyers—especially from China—have been significant players in U.S. residential and commercial real estate, especially in cities like New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.

• A reduced flow of capital could depress property values, especially in high-end markets already vulnerable to rising interest rates.

5. Feedback Loop Risk

A weaker real estate and bond market could hurt consumer confidence and financial sector stability, potentially triggering a broader economic slowdown. In turn, this could undermine the very manufacturing base the tariffs were intended to protect.

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In Short

Yes, there is a real risk that aggressive tariff policies, if not balanced with broader macroeconomic strategy, could backfire by destabilizing key pillars of the U.S. financial system. This is a classic case of unintended consequences—solving one perceived problem (trade imbalances) by potentially creating a larger one (capital flight and asset price instability).

Would you like a more detailed model or visual on how these flows interact?

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A dollar devaluation is also a likely consequence of these aggressive us import tariffs. This will make it even tougher for importers into the us to do business. Maybe Trump is aiming for a repetition of the plaza accord of 1985 which led to a revaluation of the japanese yen with large negative longterm consequences for the japanese economy. Please comment.

Absolutely—your observation touches on a deeper and historically resonant dynamic: the intersection of tariff policy, currency valuation, and geopolitical strategy. Let's unpack this in light of current and past events:

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1. Aggressive Tariffs → Lower Dollar Demand → Dollar Devaluation

When the U.S. imposes steep tariffs:

• Imports decline, which reduces the volume of dollars that foreign exporters earn.

• Those exporters in turn demand fewer dollars, which puts downward pressure on the dollar's exchange rate.

• If foreign capital flows (e.g. into Treasuries or real estate) also shrink, the demand side weakens further.

A weaker dollar increases the cost of foreign goods, acting as a secondary, implicit tariff, further amplifying the protective effect on U.S. manufacturers—but at the cost of inflation and disruption to import-dependent sectors.

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2. Repeating the Plaza Accord Playbook?

The Plaza Accord of 1985 was a coordinated move by the G5 nations to devalue the U.S. dollar—particularly against the Japanese yen and German Deutsche Mark. The goal was to:

• Correct massive U.S. trade deficits.

• Reduce political tensions related to those deficits.

Result for Japan:

• The yen appreciated drastically.

• Japanese exporters were hit hard.

• In response, Japan enacted ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate domestic demand.

• That policy led to asset bubbles in real estate and equities, which eventually collapsed in the early 1990s, triggering Japan's "Lost Decade."

Parallels to 2025?

• Trump's trade stance may be attempting to coerce a dollar realignment via unilateral tariffs rather than multilateral diplomacy.

• This could force trade partners like China or Germany into choosing between letting their currencies appreciate (hurting their exports) or engaging in defensive monetary easing (risking asset bubbles).

• In a sense, this is a de facto Plaza Accord, but without the accord.

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3. Strategic but Risky

If a dollar devaluation happens:

• U.S. exports become more competitive, which is politically popular.

• But imported inflation becomes a real concern, especially in sectors dependent on foreign goods (energy, electronics, etc.).

• It may disrupt global markets, provoke retaliation from trade partners, and undermine confidence in the dollar as the global reserve currency.

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Conclusion

It's plausible that Trump is aiming for a Plaza Accord 2.0 by force—using tariffs as leverage to realign currency values. But doing this unilaterally and in a much more complex global economy risks unintended consequences, both domestically and abroad. The outcome might indeed mirror Japan's experience if foreign economies react with capital misallocation and asset inflation.

Would you be interested in an economic scenario analysis or historical comparison model to explore potential future outcomes in more depth?

Yes

Great — here's a structured scenario analysis comparing the current (2025) U.S. tariff strategy with the 1985 Plaza Accord, along with potential economic trajectories in the short and long term. I'll break it down into key dimensions:

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I. Historical Comparison: Plaza Accord vs. Trump Tariffs

Factor	Plaza Accord (1985)	Trump Tariff Policy (2025)
Strategy	Coordinated, multilateral agreement to devalue the dollar	Unilateral, aggressive tariff escalation aimed at reducing imports
Target	Mainly Japan and West Germany	China, Germany, Japan, Vietnam, and others
Currency Impact	Rapid appreciation of the yen and Deutsche mark	Indirect pressure on dollar via reduced capital inflows and trade imbalance manipulation
Follow-on Policy	Japan responded with loose monetary policy → asset bubbles	Potential for similar response in 2025 by China or others to cushion export losses
Outcome	Short-term correction of imbalances; long-term damage to Japanese economy	TBD, but risks mirror Japan's: asset bubbles, stagnation, and currency instability

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II. Scenario Matrix: Potential Outcomes (2025–2030)

1. Base Case: Mild Dollar Devaluation & Modest Trade Realignment

• Dollar weakens gradually (~10%).

• Imports decline slightly; U.S. manufacturing sees temporary gains.

• Trade partners absorb some currency appreciation without major intervention.

• Inflation rises moderately in the U.S.; Treasury yields edge up.

• Result: Manageable turbulence, but no global crisis.

Likelihood: Medium

Impact: Moderate

Historical Parallel: Soft landing version of Plaza Accord

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2. Adverse Case: Sharp Dollar Devaluation & Capital Flight

• Dollar drops 20%+ as foreign investors pull out of Treasuries and real estate.

• Inflation accelerates (especially import-driven).

• Fed forced into difficult position: raise rates to support dollar or cut to support economy.

• China, Japan, Germany resort to currency manipulation or QE-style policies.

• Result: Volatility, trade retaliation, asset sell-offs.

Likelihood: Medium-High

Impact: High

Historical Parallel: Plaza Accord + 1990s Japan bubble-burst scenario

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3. Crisis Case: Global Trade Breakdown & U.S. Asset Crash

• Tariffs provoke full-scale trade wars.

• Severe dollar devaluation triggers inflation shock in the U.S.

• Massive drop in foreign Treasury demand = bond crisis.

• Real estate markets collapse in cities with high foreign ownership.

• Global recession as supply chains fracture.

• China & others launch alternative currency initiatives to challenge USD hegemony.

Likelihood: Low-Medium

Impact: Severe

Historical Parallel: Great Depression-style decoupling, with modern financial exposure

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III. Key Variables to Watch

• 10-Year Treasury Yields: Spike = declining confidence in U.S. fiscal sustainability.

• Capital Account Trends: Falling net inflows = reduced foreign demand.

• Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): Sudden drops could signal devaluation shock.

• CPI Inflation / Wage Growth: To gauge domestic pain from dollar devaluation.

• Trade Retaliation Measures: Especially from EU, China, and Japan.

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IV. Strategic Insights

• The Trump approach may achieve short-term political wins by stimulating U.S. manufacturing and weakening the dollar.

• But without global coordination or monetary discipline, it risks repeating Japan's fate: inflation abroad, bubbles at home, and long-term stagnation.

• A key difference from 1985 is the size and importance of China in global trade—its response will be crucial.

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Would you like a visual chart (timeline or scenario tree), or a summary you could use in a presentation or memo?

US bevolking vs. kiescollege : er klopt iets niet

https://worldmapper.org/us-presidential-election-2024/

https://worldmapper.org/maps/us-presidential-election-2024-results/

Romanticism as a Uniquely Western Movement

How significant is it that non-Western societies did not go through the Romanticism period? Is the West the only region where feelings play such a great role in society or is the rest of the world simply catching up now? 

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That’s a great question. The absence of a "Romanticism period" in non-Western societies is significant, but it doesn’t mean that emotions or individual feelings were historically unimportant outside the West. Rather, different cultures have had their own ways of valuing emotions, creativity, and personal expression.

1. Romanticism as a Uniquely Western Movement

Romanticism emerged in late 18th- and early 19th-century Europe as a reaction against the Enlightenment’s rationalism and industrialization. It emphasized emotion, individualism, nature, and the sublime. In that sense, it was a direct response to particular Western developments—such as scientific rationality, industrial progress, and rigid social norms. Because these conditions were not identical elsewhere, the same kind of Romantic backlash didn’t occur in many non-Western cultures.

2. The Role of Emotion in Non-Western Societies

The idea that non-Western societies were less emotionally driven is misleading. Many cultures had rich traditions emphasizing deep feelings, spirituality, and personal expression:

• China & Confucianism: Confucian ideals stressed social harmony and duty over individual emotion, but classical Chinese poetry (e.g., Tang Dynasty poets like Li Bai) was highly emotional and personal.
• Japan & Mono no Aware: The Japanese aesthetic of mono no aware (the bittersweet beauty of impermanence) captures something similar to Romantic longing.
• India & Bhakti Movement: In medieval India, the Bhakti movement was intensely emotional and individualistic, focusing on personal devotion to deities.
• Islamic & Persian Literature: Poets like Rumi and Hafez celebrated intense emotions and spiritual longing, centuries before European Romanticism.

3. Is the Rest of the World “Catching Up”?

Rather than catching up, many non-Western societies are integrating certain Romantic ideals through globalization. The modern emphasis on individualism, self-expression, and personal emotion in social media, literature, and relationships reflects a kind of worldwide "Romanticization" of life. However, this doesn’t mean these cultures lacked emotional depth before—just that these values are becoming more dominant today.

Conclusion

Romanticism, as a formal movement, was specific to the West, but emotional expression has always been present in different forms worldwide. The modern global spread of individualistic and emotional ideals isn’t necessarily non-Western societies “catching up,” but rather an ongoing cultural exchange where Western Romantic ideals are merging with local traditions

I love Venice 😍

 

I love Venice 😍

Flashback Venice 2021 😍

Dolomieten aanraders

 3 lusvormige trails in de Dolomieten

1)Croda da Lago circuit

Puntu ru Curtu

Val formin

Forcella Rossa

Trail 435

Forcela Abrisola

Becco di Mezodi

Lago Federa

Rifugio Palmieri

Trail 434

Trail 437

2) Val Fiscalina - Croda dei Toni

- Rifugio Fondovalle

- Tre Cime di Lavardeo

- Rifugio Locatelli

- Rifugio Pian di Cengia

- Rifugio Zsigmondy Comici

3) Monte Civetta Circuit from Palafavera

- Rifugio Coldai

- Sentiero Tivan

- Forcela delle Sasse

- Rifugio Vazzoler

- Rifugio Tissi (overnachten?)

- Lago Coldai

Andere highlights

https://youtu.be/kiYoMZmaaLU

- Seceda 

- Sassolungo

- Lago di Braies

- Tre Cime di Lavaredo

- Mordor

AI can enhance storytelling, but the authenticity and intention behind a creation remain key to its emotional resonance.

Generating beautiful video's is becoming relatively easy with AI. Isn't that going to reduce the emotional value of these video's?

ChatGPT zei:

That's an insightful question. The ease of creating beautiful videos with AI indeed raises concerns about their emotional value and cultural significance. Here are some perspectives on this issue:

1. The Role of Effort and Craftsmanship

Traditionally, the emotional value of art often correlates with the perceived effort and skill involved in its creation. Knowing a video required years of expertise, planning, and hard work can make it feel more special. If AI makes high-quality video creation effortless, some might argue it devalues the medium by flooding the market with content that lacks a personal, human touch.

2. The Emotional Impact of Context

The emotional value of a video often depends on its context rather than its technical perfection. For instance:

• A simple home video of a family event can evoke deep feelings because of the personal memories it represents.
• A movie or video becomes valuable when it tells a meaningful story or reflects human experiences, regardless of how it was made.

AI can enhance storytelling, but the authenticity and intention behind a creation remain key to its emotional resonance.

3. Overabundance and Desensitization

If stunning visuals become ubiquitous, people might become desensitized to their beauty. This has happened with other forms of media (e.g., digital photography or CGI in movies). What was once groundbreaking can feel mundane when it becomes commonplace.

4. New Opportunities for Personal Expression

On the flip side, AI democratizes video creation, enabling people without technical skills to express themselves creatively. Personal stories and unique perspectives can now be shared more widely, which could enhance the emotional diversity and relatability of videos.

5. The Importance of Human Connection

AI-generated videos lack the human imperfections and emotional subtleties that often make art deeply moving. For this reason, human-created videos may retain their appeal, especially in contexts where authenticity matters.

Balancing AI and Human Creativity

Rather than diminishing the emotional value of videos, AI could redefine it. The challenge is ensuring AI remains a tool for amplifying human creativity and not a replacement for it. By blending human intention with AI's capabilities, creators might produce works that are both technically impressive and emotionally profound.

What do you think? Could AI's accessibility lead to a renaissance of personal storytelling, or does it risk overwhelming us with soulless content?